Smithers forecasts further growth for $60.4 billion folding carton packaging market and demand booming in the $8.56 billion market for functional and barrier coatings for paperboard packaging, latest data shows.
Smithers forecasts further growth for $60.4 billion folding carton packaging market
Sustainability demands will push further growth in sales of cartonboard, microflute and miniflute packaging, according to the latest data from Smithers. In 2023, actual consumption of these paperboard formats will reach a projected 56.8 million tons worldwide, up from 47.8 million tons in 2019.
Exclusive forecasting available to purchase now from Smithers, in its latest market report – The Future of Folding Cartons to 2028 – shows this will reach 77.3 million tons in 2028, equivalent to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of +6.4%.
Across the same period value of cartonboard will increase from $60.4 billion to $79.7 billion (at constant prices), equivalent to a CAGR of +5.7%. The global value of converted folding carton packaging will reach $199.0 billion in 2023; and then increase to $274.5 billion in 2028.
Analysis of the 24 end-use applications included in Smithers’ extensive data set, reveals folding carton use will remain fairly evenly split between food and beverage, and other applications. Much new growth is coming from evolving existing paper technologies to replace plastics, supported by legislation, such as the forthcoming revision of the Packaging and Packaging Waste Directive in Europe. This includes new formats in fresh produce, food service, beverage multipacks, ready meals, home, and personal care.
The fastest growing sectors across the next five years will be dry foods, confectionary, healthcare, personal care, and chilled food. Acceptance in several of these is conditional on deploying improved coating technology to protect fibers from wet or fatty foods, and present a premium print surface. Smithers estimates that nearly 70% of all cartonboard packaging carries a coating of some form. In 2023 90% of these coatings by weight are thermoplastic polymers or aluminum, and there is a premium to develop for functional coatings that do not compromise fiber recyclability. Paper mills are taking steps to upgrade machines to enable or improve inline coating on the paper machine to meet the growing demand for these types of coated cartonboard.
Luxury packaging remains a major target for many suppliers, with new premium grades entering the market combining superior print surfaces, with greater recyclability credentials. This is stimulating greater demand for virgin pulp cartonboards. Simultaneously there is an impetus to add smart tracking technology to folding cartons giving greater supply chain insight and protecting high-value goods against counterfeiting.
The market is also having to negotiate price disruption. Raw material prices rose by over 25% in 2022 following a 14% increase in 2021. In the short-term this is creating a febrile marketplace, even as new folding carton assets come online. A total of over six million tons of production capacity entered the market between 2020 and 2022, which gives a global installed capacity in 2022 of over 59 million tons, providing a buffer of some five million tons.
Paper mills, especially in Europe, are increasingly investing in more energy-efficient equipment and even trialing alternative pulp supplies. This is reflected in an increased consumption of uncoated recycled board (URB); although coated recycled board (CRB)/white-lined chipboard (WLC) and folding boxboard (FBB) will continue to represent the majority of the market.
Booming demand for dedicated e-commerce formats has translated into an acceleration of demand for microflute packaging, featuring a litho-laminated outer layer of cartonboard applied to the single-face corrugated under-layers. Over time it is anticipated that some of this cartonboard market will be eroded by the use of linerboard, thereby removing the need for a separate lamination process.
The Future of Folding Cartons to 2028 dissects the current and future market for this packaging type in forensic detail. Its exclusive data (by volume and value) is presented in over 350 tables and figures, segmenting the market by eight board grades and formats; 24 end-use applications, and 31 leading national and regional markets.
This expert business strategy guide to this rapidly evolving segment of the packaging market is available to purchase now.
Demand booming in $8.56 billion market for functional and barrier coatings for paperboard packaging, latest Smithers data shows
Functional coatings, ideally those that do not compromise recyclability, are central to the continued evolution of more sustainable fiber-based packaging. Several major paper companies have already invested to fit high-throughput coating to paper mills, anticipating a continued increase in demand for new lines of value-added products across multiple sectors.
In its latest dedicated study – The Future of Functional and Barrier Coatings for Paper and Board to 2028 – Smithers projects total value in this market will reach $8.56 billion in 2023, with almost 3.37 million tons (metric) of coating material consumed, globally. With demand strengthening in many segments, pack coatings are also benefitting from increased R&D spending, as new corporate and regulatory targets are set to enter into force. The earliest in 2025.
Expert Smithers forecasting tracks how coating demand will increase to $10.79 billion in 2028, equivalent to a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.7% for the five-year period. Across the same time, volume demand will increase at a marginally faster CAGR of +4.8% to reach 4.25 million tons in that year.
In this timely report, Smithers examines the current and future coating technologies critically. Its authoritative quantification of the market tracks the prospects for coated corrugated, flexible papers, cartonboard, liquid paperboard, and molded fiber packaging, across 13 distinct packaging segments.
It shows that greatest potential lies in the food sector, which represents 77% of contemporary coatings demand. Here there is a direct demand for functional barrier coatings that can protect paperboard, from grease, oil, and moisture. Single-use plastics legislation makes paper cups and food trays an immediate priority, as is developing barrier solutions for paper grades made with non-virgin, recycled fiber stocks. Evolution of coating technology will allow for greater diversification of fiber packaging into other formats, with several big-name brand owners actively investigating paper-based bottles.
Beyond food and beverages, suppliers are looking to capitalize on demand for superior functional paperboard coatings for use in chill chains, e-commerce, personal care, and medical packaging. A parallel trend is the development of more aqueous, water-based application systems.
Of the six major coating technologies it profiles, Smithers research shows the fastest growth will be in thermoplastic polymers, closely followed by aluminum barriers, and silicones. Despite overall expansion, the use of wax coatings is set to decline over the Smithers forecast period; while fluorochemical coatings are increasingly being pushed from the market, backed by tightening restrictions on per- and poly-fluoroalkyl substances (PFAS).
The Future of Functional and Barrier Coatings for Paper and Board to 2028 is available now providing expert insight into this increasingly important technology for sustainable packaging.
Its exclusive dataset of over 220 data tables and figures segments the historic, current, and future market (by value and volume) across
- Six coating technologies – Thermoplastic polymer, High-barrier polymer, Aluminum, Wax, Silicone, Fluorochemical
- Three application technologies – Water-based, Solvent, Solid
- Thirteen end-use applications – Beverages & liquids, Fresh food, Chilled food, Frozen food, Non-liquid dairy, Fruit & perishables,
Food-service, Bakery, Pet food, Other food (human), Healthcare, Personal care, Other non-food - Six fiber-based packaging formats – Corrugated, Folding cartons, Flexible papers, Liquid paperboard, Molded fiber, Other
- Twenty seven, regional and leading national markets – North America, US, Canada, Mexico; South & Central America, Brazil, Other South & Central America; Western Europe, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, UK, Other Western Europe; Eastern Europe, Poland, Russia, Other Eastern Europe; Middle East, Turkey, Other Middle East;
Asia-Pacific, China, India, Japan, Other Asia, Australasia.
This expert business strategy guide is available to buy, priced $6,750 (€5,970, £5,250).
For more information about Smithers, please visit https://www.smithers.com/
About Smithers:
Founded in 1925 and headquartered in Akron, Ohio, Smithers is a multinational provider of testing, consulting, information, and compliance services. With laboratories and operations in North America, Europe, and Asia, Smithers supports customers in the transportation, life science, packaging, materials, components, consumer, cannabis, dry commodities, and energy industries. Smithers delivers accurate data, on time, with high touch, by integrating science, technology, and business expertise, so customers can innovate with confidence.
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